MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0150
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1251 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL/SOUTH TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290451Z - 290830Z
 
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT DUE TO HEAVY RAINS
ACCOMPANYING A SQUALL LINE.


DISCUSSION...WHAT HAD BEEN A WELL DEFINED MCS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX ON THURSDAY EVENING WAS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE AS
IT HEADS SOUTH AND EAST.  THIS TRANSITION WAS BEING DRIVEN AS THE
STORM ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME COLD POOL DOMINATED. 

HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE
WAS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPES REMAINED ON THE ORDER
OF 3500 J/JG AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON
THE ORDER OF 1.75 INCHES.  

THUS EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
HOURS BEFORE THE RAINFALL RATES TAPER OFF.

THERE ARE STILL SOME CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WHERE MERGERS AND TRAINING OCCUR THROUGH 330 AM CDT WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED BY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WHICH WILL DRAW IN AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32209747 31959694 31359659 30359672 29419730 
            28039848 28270001 28490033 29030075 29450118 
            29450020 29759920 31259865 31849784