MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0153
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
509 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA....WESTERN ARKANAS...SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...EXT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...EXT NORTHEAST TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 292115Z - 300315Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE TRAINING ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...WV/VIS IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS ELONGATED MCV ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH WELL DEFINED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AIDING CONVECTIVE CONVERGENCE AND GROWTH ATTM.  THIS IS
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED ALONG THE PSEUDO COLD FRONT TOWARD THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR FSM BEFORE EFFECTIVELY ACTING AS A TROWAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MO/SOUTHEAST KS. DEEP NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER OF ABOUT 25-30
KTS IS NEARLY EQUAL TO THE INFLOW AOA THE 850MB FLOW TO STRONGLY
SUGGEST VERY SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY AS TRACKS FOR PROLONGED TRAINING
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IDEAL BOUNDARY LAYER(SFC-925MB) BACKED
ISALLOBARIC INFLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE ROOTED CONVECTION FOR HIGH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. 

AMPLE TOTAL PWATS OF 1.6-1.75" PER SOUNDER/GPS NETWORK AND MLCAPES
IN EXCESS OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE DISCUSSION PERIOD FOR RATES
OF 1.5-2"/HR LEADING TO LOCAL 3-5" RAINFALL TOTALS.  THIS IS IN
LINE WITH HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM-CONEST AND PARALLEL
NMMB...THOUGH THE ARW AND OPERATIONAL NMMB DO VERY WELL WITH THE
ORIENTATION AND TOTALS OF THE TROWAL AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37879363 36509357 36289191 33809241 32799317 
            32979472 34109496 35919564 37149529