MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0155
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN AR...FAR SOUTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300430Z - 300730Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AR IS
CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. PWATS AS PER GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS DATA ARE OVER 1.75
INCHES...AND THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF OVER
2000 J/KG POOLED OVER EASTERN AR WHICH IS OUT AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING SSW/NNE ORIENTED BAND OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE
MCV SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES AND CONCERN IN PARTICULAR FOR THE CONVECTION TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA WITH VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2
INCHES/HR...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36999109 36989053 36629014 34949054 33789144 
            33379247 34019289 34989205 36609169 
a