MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0168
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT THU JUN 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST
MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 040634Z - 041234Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TO LIKELY TRAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST
POSING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING ROOTED ALOFT
BUT REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITIES
RUNNING IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.  A POOL OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
VALUES WITH TOTAL PWATS IN THE 1.75" RANGE EXIST ALONG A DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.  850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT THE NOSE OF
A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 50 KT PLUS LOW LEVEL JET HAS
SUPPORT INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONVECT ELEVATED DEEP
CONVECTION FROM NEAR LXN TO JUST NORTH OF STJ.  THIS AXIS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
CELL MOTIONS THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER ARE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE AXIS ALLOWING FOR TRAINING...PARTICULARLY FURTHER EAST
WHERE 700-500MB FLOW IS SLACKENED.  CELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
EFFICIENT PRODUCING RAIN RATES FROM 2 TO 3"/HR WITH TRAINING AND
MERGERS...POCKETS OF TOTALS EXCEEDING 3-5" ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
LINE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 6+ HOURS.  THE ORIENTATION AND AXIS
OF THE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE STRONG HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODEL SUPPORT
PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ARW/NMMB AND THEIR PARALLEL RUNS.    

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41169896 40679617 40159410 39649395 39039467 
            39369764 40139932