MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0169
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
820 AM EDT THU JUN 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE, NORTHEAST KS, MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041219Z - 041549Z
 
SUMMARY...A FEW REPEATING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HOURLY
RAIN RATES CLOSE TO 2" COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SATURATED
SOILS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONGEALING AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS
CITY INTO MO NEAR AND NORTH OF AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
USING CURRENT CONVECTION AS A GUIDE, THE 12C 700 HPA ISOTHERM
APPEARS TO BE ACTING AS THE CAP EDGE IN THIS REGION.  VAD WIND
PROFILES SHOW 850 HPA INFLOW OF 25-40 KTS (NEARLY DOUBLE THE MEAN
850-400 HPA WIND) FROM AN AREA OF 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPES FEEDING
INTO THE BOUNDARY AND BURGEONING COMPLEX.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ~1.75" EXIST IN THE REGION.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS LOW FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO, WHICH IS A REGION THAT HAS RECEIVED ~12" OF
RAIN DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS PER STAGE IV RADAR DATA.

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO FADE IN 2-3 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENS.  IT SHOULD BEGIN TO CONSTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
FAST-MOVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING AT 40 KTS AND RELATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE. 
GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS IS EXPECTED PER
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS.  WHILE THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE REGION FADES BY 15Z, THE 10Z HRRR
SUGGESTS IT COULD HOLD TOGETHER AS LONG AS 18Z.  BELIEVE A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z SPCWRF AND 10Z HRRR SHOULD WORK OUT BEST
FORECAST-WISE.  WENT TOWARDS 16Z AS THE HORIZON FOR THIS MPD DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX'S PERSISTENCE
AND USED THE POSSIBLE CATEGORY DUE TO THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS REGION.  

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...LBF...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41319931 40439526 39419121 37969189 38019434 
            38649699 39909862