MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0170
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1208 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NE/KS BORDER INTO NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041608Z - 042208Z
 
SUMMARY...DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF CO ARE
EXPECTED TO SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A
SURFACE BOUNDARY.  CONSIDERING SATURATED SOILS, FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS SLOWLY FADING
ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY AREA, LEAVING AN EFFECTIVE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS AND PORTIONS OF MO WHICH IS SHOWING AREAS OF A BROAD
15F OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
NEAR 1.75", WITH 850 HPA INFLOW DOWN TO 15-25 KTS INTO THE REGION.
 CIN REMAINS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG NEAR AND TO ITS SOUTH.

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 HPA INFLOW BACKING TO MORE SOUTHERLY INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS NEAR THE TOP OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM CO WHILE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
ACROSS KS/MO REMAINS STATIONARY.  RAP FORECASTS SHOW CAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 5000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE 850 HPA INFLOW
INCREASES TO 25+ KTS.  CONVECTION SHOULD FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP, REPRESENTED BY 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF
12C, ONCE THE CIN ERODES IN THE 18-19Z TIME FRAME.  THIS SHOULD
REINFORCE THE EXISTING COLD POOL.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
FORWARD PROPAGATION, MUCH LIKE THE MORNING CONVECTION, TO THE EAST
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ~25 KTS BASED ON FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS AND THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN.  

CELL TRAINING IS THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS REGION OVER SATURATED
SOILS.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL BUT SCATTERSHOT
SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NMMB OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL RUNS (FOR
EXPECTED ACTIVITY) AND THE 14Z HRRR (TO DEAL WITH THE REMAINS OF
THE CURRENT COMPLEX) APPEARS BEST.  THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE INDICATES THAT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...GLD...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40959595 40469337 39179217 37799281 38609462 
            39189703 39439932 40059979 40759832