MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0172
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 AM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST
MISSOURI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050405Z - 051005Z
 
SUMMARY...SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOCUSING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

DISCUSSION...LEADING WAVE OF CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH TOPEKA TO
KANSAS CITY METRO REMAINS FED BY RELATIVE SURFACE INFLOW. RAIN
RATES CONTINUE TO BE  2-2.5"/HR  BUT GIVEN FORWARD
MOTIONS...FAIRLY SOON FLOODING THREAT WILL REDUCE AS IT MOVES INTO
HIGHER GUIDANCE AND LESS SATURATED SOILS.

UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA A NEW BATCH OF ELEVATED DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF  A EAST-WEST MULTIPLY REINFORCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.  THE BOUNDARY HAS
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED TO AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED 925 FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO TAP 2000+ J/KG MUCAPES FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION. RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALSO
SUGGEST SOME OF THE AIR NORTH OF MIDLEVEL MCV...AS DESCRIBED IN
0226Z SPENES...MAY BE GETTING INGESTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME COLD POOL
GENERATION TO PROPAGATE THE CELLS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA ALLOWING A SHIFT IN FOCUS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CELLS EFFICIENCY WITH 2-2.5"/HR RATES GIVEN THE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAIN WITH THE LINE.

FURTHER WEST...CELLS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY/STATIONARY FRONT HAVE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS HAVE STRONGER SEVERE SIGNAL WITH SUPER-CELLULAR
NATURE... AS SUCH RIGHT MOVING CELL MOTION ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
SLOW ALLOWING FOR STATIONARY CELLS AND THREAT FOR SMALL LOCALIZED
VERY HIGH TOTALS...PER TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR RUNS.  
ADDITIONALLY...LEFT SPLITTING CELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MERGE
WITH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING CONVECTION IN
NEBRASKA.  

EVOLUTION TO A CONSOLIDATION OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IN THE NEAR
TERM...ALLOWING FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR. 
HOWEVER...INJECTION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW TO MIDLEVEL AIR IN PLACE
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR COMPLEX TO BE A BIT MORE
COLD POOL DOMINANT WITH LESS OF A THREAT FOR HANGING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.  FURTHER EAST FROM
CNK TO TOP...HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TRANSPORTED OVER THE BOUNDARY
COULD LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT CELLS BUT LESS INSTABILITY AND WORKED
OVER AIR IS IN PLACE. STILL GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS...FLOODING THREAT REMAINS HIGHER THERE.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40629845 40389540 40069442 39219282 38209372 
            38289460 38899774 38939978 39140049 39790034 
            40319969