MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0173
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NE... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 052245Z - 060300Z
 
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS EASTERN CO...NORTHEAST KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NE POSES A
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CO. THE LATEST
IR LOOP SHOWS COOLING TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS A LOW LEVEL 20
TO 25 KNOT SOUTHEAST INFLOW TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.25 INCHES ALONG AND OVER THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME
UNCAPPED...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH 00Z.

AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS AN INCREASING MODEL SIGNAL THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL START TO GROW UPSCALE AND FORM AN MCS ACROSS
EASTERN CO INTO NORTHWEST KS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. THIS IS SEEN IN
THE SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LATEST NAM. THE
CONVECTION IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED...AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LARGE CAPE VALUES AND DRY MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...AS THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX TRACKS NORTHEAST... TRAINING
AND CELLS TURNING TO THE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASE
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

THE LATEST HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE CELLS TRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 03Z
ACROSS PORTIONS NE...AS INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
REMAIN IN PLACE. 

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41499984 41229810 39399881 38470062 38460075 
            38290106 37840164 37590260 38040339 38820348 
            38820350 40240247 41420105