Graphic for MPD #0174
 
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0174
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST WY/EASTERN MT/EXTREME WESTERN SD... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060125Z - 060600Z
 
SUMMARY..A DEVELOPING MCS OVER NORTHEAST WY TRACKS INTO EASTERN
MT...POSING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION..REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND THE IR LOOP SHOWED A
DEVELOPING MCS OVER NORTHEAST WY. COOLING TOPS SEEN ON IR LOOP
HAVE REACHED INTO SOUTHEAST MT...AND THE KGGW RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN CORES IN THE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE MCS...WITH
HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ABOVE 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY.

REGIONAL VWP SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST INFLOW
FOCUSED ON NORTHEAST WY AND EASTERN MT...TRANSPORTING 1.25 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN) AHEAD OF THE MCS. THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDINGS SHOWED SBCAPE
VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING ELEVATED. 

THE COMBINATION OF THE INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
FEED THE MCS AS IT CROSSES INTO EASTERN MT. NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
MCS PEAKS IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST.

THE LATEST HRRR SHOWED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT (WITH LOCAL 6 INCH MOUNTS POSSIBLE)...AND THESE
AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NSSL WRF. 
WITH ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD VALUES AS LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES...AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING AND RIGHT
TURNING CELLS OCCUR.

HAYES 

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...CYS...GGW...RIW...TFX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   48690521 47400389 45060312 44620289 44080277 
            43590296 43360356 43340446 43490532 43490533 
            44080708 44040699 45400823 47090911 48590718 
            


Last Updated: 924 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2015