MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0175
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1247 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060445Z - 061045Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EAST OVER SATURATED SOILS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A TONGUE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS FROM
1.4-1.6" AND INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000
J/KG ORIENTED JUST EAST OF THE 7H RIDGE AXIS FROM EAR/HSI TO EWK. 
THE DEVELOPING MCV JUST SOUTH OF MCK AND DIURNAL INCREASE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO 25-30KT PER VWP NETWORK. THOUGH THE JET AXIS AND
THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ARE NOT IDEALLY ORIENTED THERE HAS BEEN
ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SHIELD
PRECIPITATION FROM THE DYING MCS PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  THOUGH
STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  RECENT HRRR
TRENDS INDICATE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STRENGTHENING CORES LIKELY
DUE TO INCREASED ADVECTION OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.  

EVEN THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS MAY NOT BE STRONG...AND
WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS...WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESS COULD MAKE FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION.  TO COMPOUND THE ISSUE...VERY SLOW CELL
MOTIONS WITH WEAK CLOUD BEARING STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE 2-3" RANGE OVER AREAS IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS...EXACERBATING THE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION.

AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION PROGRESSES... THE BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO
ORIENT MORE NORTH-SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW IN NEBRASKA. 
THIS ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IOWA HAS
FOCUSED A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SANDWICHING A POCKET OF STABLE AIR IN
BETWEEN...THIS SHOULD AID TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION BUT THERE
IS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR EAST THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS BY 10Z.  AS SUCH THE AREA IS EXPANDED
EAST UNDER THESE SLIGHT POSSIBILITIES. 
  
GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41429842 41209691 40639617 39499528 38869568 
            38809704 39709869 39659952 39560020 40120062 
            40530058 41139979