MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0182
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL IN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 080130Z - 080700Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE 1.90 TO 2.00
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MO THROUGH 
CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL IN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF IL AND WESTERN IN DUE TO ONGOING
CONVECTION...00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN IL
INTO NORTHERN MO SHOWED 2500 TO 3500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE
INSTABILITY WILL FEED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MO...AND THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN
HOUR...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE ENVIRONMENT...SOME OF
THIS IS LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED. HOWEVER... THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR CAN SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AN
HOUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING AND MERGERS TAKE PLACE. ONE AND
THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES AN HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IL...AND ONGOING
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD LOWER THESE VALUES.

THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT TRUNDLES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT TRAINING OF CONVECTION INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT LOCAL
2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE


HAYES

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41358605 41308578 41058546 40948543 39888652 
            39428967 39469221 39549322 40139336 40129337 
            40659138 41028829 41038826 41078803 41268708 
            41318656