MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0183
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO.... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 080200Z - 080730Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION BACKBUILDING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN MO AND EASTERN KS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION BACKBUILDING
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG...AS WELL AS PRECIPIATBLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES. 
 
GIVEN THE IN SITU MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NEARBY WESTERN MO BETWEEN 0230 AND 0430Z. WHILE THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION FILLS IN DURING
THIS TIME WINDOW...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN JUST HOW ROBUST THE
CONVECTION BECOMES. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONT FOR LOCAL 2-3 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH...SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY THAT  INHIBITION WINS OUT OVER INSTABILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS. 

SINCE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
ABOVE 2.50 INCHES...TRAINING WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR FLASH FLOODING
TO COMMENCE. BACKBUILDING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN TRAINING AND
CELL MERGERS...SO FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HAYES 

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40029331 39459282 37939433 37629656 37899716 
            38059712 38029715 38849625 39629518