MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0187
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AZ & WESTERN NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 092010Z - 100210Z
 
SUMMARY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
REMNANTS OF BLANCA COULD ALLOW FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5". 
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA ARE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CA/SEA OF CORTEZ AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING.  THE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 3-6 SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR
MID-JUNE INTO THE REGION, WITH ABSOLUTE VALUES OF 1-1.5" PER GPS
INFORMATION.  MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG HAVE BUILT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM PER BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.  INFLOW AT 700
HPA OF 20-25 KTS HAS BEEN REPORTED BY VAD WIND PROFILES, NEARLY
DOUBLE THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND, WHICH SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INSTABILITY GROWS
ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM TO 1000-2000 J/KG PER RECENT RAP
RUNS.  A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE 700 HPA FLOW IS FORECAST WITH TIME,
THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP CONVECTION WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS RATHER WEAK, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ADVERTISED. 
HOWEVER, THIS IS A DRY AREA WITH ROUGH TOPOGRAPHY.  SINCE HOURLY
RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1.5" ARE POSSIBLE, THE GUIDANCE COULD BE
UNDERSELLING THE POTENTIAL HERE.  FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36870759 36540680 35910626 35390698 34790688 
            33060728 32040702 31730711 31720810 31700810 
            31340811 31270807 31250949 31261094 31271126 
            31341160 31361172 31741215 32811238 34421227 
            36001222 35951052 36791065 36350959 36830908 
            36130840