MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0188
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
608 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 101007Z - 101607Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH RAINFALL RATES
CAPABLE OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE PASSING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA'S REMNANT VORT
ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO INCREASED
MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM ONTO THE NORTHERN
ARIZONA PLATEAU.  TOTAL PWATS ARE IN THE 1.0" RANGE WHICH IS
NEARLY 8-9 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  EVEN WITH THIS
MOISTURE...INSTABILITIES ARE AT DIURNAL MINIMUM NEAR 250-400 J/KG
ATTM...BUT 20-25 KT 700MB FLOW IS SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT ALONG TROF
AXIS FROM LAS THROUGH TO NEAR GJT.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE POOLING AND SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
FOR WEAK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...WITHIN A SLIGHTLY
TRAINING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR
CELL MOTIONS TOWARD ALONG SIMILAR AXIS.  
CURRENT IR AND RADAR SHOW AN UPTICK IN CAULIFORM OR CELLULAR
NATURE OF CELLS BETWEEN FLG AND INW SHOWING INCREASE IN DEPTH AND
COVERAGE ANGLING TOWARD CONFLUENCE WITH THE 700MB BOUNDARY.  THIS
INCREASE IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED UVV FROM LEFT EXIT JET
DYNAMICS FROM APPROACHING/ STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND
EJECTION OF VORT ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE OFF SHORE CUT-OFF LOW.

RECENT FEW RUNS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM-CONEST SUGGEST A SIMILAR
TREND OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE GROWTH FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHEAST UTAH BY 11-12Z... WITH INCREASED DEPTH COMES INCREASED
RATES OF .5-.75" GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOISTURE IN PLACE.
EVENTUALLY...FORECASTS ARE FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH THE
SUNRISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPPING...CELLS
SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE IN DEPTH AND RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH
RATES IN THE 1.0-1.25"/HR RANGE LIKELY LEADING TO TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF 1.0" TO NEAR OR ECLIPSE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY 15Z.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   39250772 38510608 37200616 36230801 34871035 
            35291183 35931309 37311167 38141088 39120929