MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0189
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CO/NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 101955Z - 110155Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2"
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A COLORADO LOW HAS BEEN DEVELOPING TODAY, WITH ITS
CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO 1001 HPA PER THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  THIS PRESSURE FALL IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA'S REMNANTS WHICH ARE ENTERING
WESTERN CO.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM IN
SOUTHEAST CO WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
1.2" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (3-4 SIGMAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-JUNE), AND 25 KTS OF 700 HPA INFLOW.

THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION ACROSS
CO SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE CAP WHICH THEN ORGANIZES
AND MOVES ~25 KTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST PER THE 1000-500 HPA
THICKNESS PATTERN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS.  RAP
FORECASTS INDICATE 850 HPA INFLOW INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS, WHICH
SHOULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION IF ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT DO
THE JOB.  CAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG WITHIN THIS
REGION, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH. 
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4"
HERE.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75" IN RAP
FORECASTS, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE WHICH APPROACH
THE THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE REGION.  CELL
TRAINING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA.  FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   42020036 41859851 40979751 40019833 39570002 
            39210099 38460220 38150354 38100376 38120453 
            37670578 38450595 39510583 39880547 40650352 
            41060266