MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0190
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1101 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS INTO CNTRL/ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN IOWA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110301Z - 110801Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN KANSAS...ERN NEBRASKA INTO WRN IOWA
PROMOTING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. TRAINING ELEMENTS OF CONVECTION
WITH 3 HOURLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 2-3 INCHES.

DISCUSSION...00Z RAOB DATA SUPPORTED A LOCAL MAX IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM WRN KANSAS INTO ERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 1.4
AND 1.6 INCHES...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE JUNE
MEANS. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS FOCUSED NEAR 700 MB WITH DEWPOINTS
BETWEEN 6-8 C. ALOFT...WEAK IMPULSES WERE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER SERN COLORADO WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER OVER NERN COLORADO IS
FORECAST BY SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER INTO SRN
NEBRASKA THROUGH 09Z...WITH RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW JUST SOUTH. AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS...850-700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST
TO BE STRONGEST FROM CNTRL KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW REACHING BETWEEN 40-50 KTS...ALIGNING WITH
MEAN STORM MOTIONS...HELPING TO PROMOTE TRAINING. 

INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST OVER NRN MISSOURI...BUT STRONGER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST WHERE
INSTABILITY IS LOWER. WHILE REDUCED...THIS REGION OF LOWER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. HI-RES MODELS...LED
BY THE 12Z NSSL WRF...RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE THREAT AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NEAR 2-3 INCHES IN
3 HOURS...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42589594 42199498 41729459 41259444 40959478 
            40589578 39949696 39459813 39389930 39969949 
            40479946 41279874 42169748