MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0191
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WRN
IOWA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110828Z - 111230Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z
FROM NERN KANSAS INTO SWRN IOWA. 3 HOUR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA THROUGH
08Z SHOWED AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MHK-FNB-CSQ...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR ESTIMATES AND GROUND TRUTH
SUPPORTED RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 IN/HR EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER CORES OF THE MCS. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE HIGHEST MUCAPE VALUES...2000+ J/KG...LOCATED ALONG THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER...WITH VALUES DOWN TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG NEARER
TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WHILE MANY OF THE 00Z HI-RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE SWD
EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO KANSAS...THE
00Z NMM/ARW SEEM TO BE HANDING CONVECTION AND THE RELATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY REASONABLY WELL AS OF 08Z...AND FORECAST THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE OUTFLOW TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE WEST-EAST BY 12Z NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN ERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...AN AXIS OF 700 MB CONFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...AS SHOWN BY RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP...FROM NERN KANSAS
INTO SWRN IOWA. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES PER BLENDED TPW PRODUCT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND AN AXIS OF 850-700
MB WINDS EXCEEDING STORM MOTIONS OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PERIODS
OF TRAINING CONVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR FLASH FLOODING EXTENDING FROM
NERN KANSAS INTO SWRN IOWA GIVEN THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
 
OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42309331 42069292 41229307 39719415 38679576 
            38369674 38659738 39429706 40569603 41419528 
            42159428