MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0195
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
807 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...FAR NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHWEST KS...OK
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120005Z - 120600Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE AND MERGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING EAST ALONG
THE CO/NM BORDER IS INTERACTING WITH RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE FOR NUMEROUS
MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DEPICTS AN
UPTICK OVERALL IN CONVECTIVE/UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL CELL MERGERS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER EASTERN CO OVER THE
LAST HOUR. GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ARE CLOSE TO 1 INCH...AND WITH CLOSE
TO 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE STILL IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR STRONGLY SUGGESTS A NUMBER OF CELL
MERGERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY
TAKING THE FORM OF A LARGER SCALE MCS THAT WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
CO...SOUTHWEST KS AND ALSO POTENTIALLY THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE
A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.

OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OVER 2 INCHES/HR IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN CO. THE INTENSE RATES COUPLED WITH CELL-MERGERS
AND AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT
SHORT-TERM HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40400316 39910219 39120122 38390051 37520005 
            36609998 35980092 36090250 36640402 37160464 
            37830511 38460551 39610544 40210466