MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0196
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
102 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MISSOURI AND ERN IOWA INTO CNTRL TO NRN
ILLINOIS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120500Z - 120900Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN MISSOURI AND FROM ERN IOWA TO THE WRN SHORE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA WHILE
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR MISSOURI.

DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LINGERING ACROSS ERN IOWA INTO SRN
WISCONSIN AND CNTRL TO NRN ILLINOIS WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES REMAIN PER RECENT GPS PW PLOTS OVER ERN
IOWA. A ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATE OF 2.74 INCHES AT KCID ENDING AT
03Z IS EVIDENCE OF THE POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A
FREEZING LEVEL OF 13.8 KFT OBSERVED AT THE DVN 00Z SOUNDING.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE AND RECENT WARMING OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE CONFIRMS
WEAKENING UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING POCKETS OF EMBEDDED
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO N-CNTRL ILLINOIS AT 0430Z. ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE LOW / SHORTWAVE
IN NRN IOWA WILL MAINTAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z OR 08Z BEFORE RAINFALL LIKELY
BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE AND STRATIFORM IN NATURE.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN MISSOURI...ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO
1000 J/KG REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF A 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NERN KANSAS INTO CNTRL IOWA. RADAR TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR SUPPORTED A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW. WHILE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT
TOO KEEN ON CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED HERE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43578754 42868733 41988752 41148842 40558999 
            39659208 39409510 39939551 40329296 40989223 
            41479279 42459259 42829148 43538855