MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0197
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES TO CNTRL KS/OK BORDER 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120552Z - 121100Z
 
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ELEMENTS OF SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TRAINING WILL CONTINUE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO S-CNTRL KS THROUGH 11Z. 

DISCUSSION...AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL
CO/NM BORDER...CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE OVER THE SRN-CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS AS OF 06Z. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE...RANGING BETWEEN -70 AND -75
C...CONVECTION ALSO EXISTED INTO SRN KANSAS ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND ACROSS CNTRL KANSAS LIKELY NEAR THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND DDC
INDICATED CAPES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG WHICH ARE BEING UTILIZED BY
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND WHILE DIMINISHED AT THIS 06Z
HOUR...INSTABILITY IS ESTIMATED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG PER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND GOES SOUNDER DATA.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGHER AS ONE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MPD
THREAT AREA...AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE EWD
MOVING SHORTWAVE...REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE...REMAINING
INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 10-11Z...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS
AND CELL TRAINING CAUSING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS INTO NWRN OK. A 00Z HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS IDEA
LED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WHICH
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 4-5 INCHES BY 11Z. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38819777 38529726 37979691 37169703 36429806 
            35560138 35560231 36180259 36980187 37960084 
            38389972 38679874