MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0199
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122005Z - 130200Z
 
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO
2 INCHES/HR COUPLED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING WILL FAVOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU/TCU FIELD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OK NEAR AND ADJACENT A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN GROWING UPSCALE ALREADY OVER THE LAST HOUR OVER THE NORTHERN
TX PANHANDLE...AND CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE OFF TO THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST CO INTERACTS WITH A GROWING POOL OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. ALREADY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW UPSCALE
GROWTH TO THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND PWATS REACHING OVER 1.5
INCHES SHOULD FAVOR RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE THREAT OF TRAINING WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE HI RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH EARLY TO
MID-EVENING. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AT
LEAST LOCALLY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36969811 36739688 36299647 35669688 35059854 
            34240028 33940147 33910253 34270302 35040261 
            35920166 36460070 36849942