MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
439 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...WESTERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122035Z - 122335Z
 
SUMMARY...VERY INTENSE AND SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND INTO SOUTHEAST KS. IN
FACT...SOME VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED NEAR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF KBVO AND WEST OF
KJLN. THE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY RATHER STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND RESULTING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
ROBUST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE BOUNDARY. SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IS NOTED FROM THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN KS WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND A BIT MORE IN COVERAGE THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO AND REMAIN QUITE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH A
FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING CELLS. INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING...EXPECT LOCALLY SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38729296 37949281 37269362 36549503 35909645 
            36429640 36799677 36989761 37059820 37329682 
            37729599 38649437