MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0201
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 122330Z - 130330Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INTENSE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES.

DISCUSSION...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS AND INTO WESTERN MO ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW-MOVING AND THERE
HAS BEEN A SERIES OF BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING CELLS OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND COUPLED WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2500
J/KG...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE 22Z HRRR THOUGH SUGGESTS THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 03Z IF
NOT SOONER.

UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN INTENSE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR. SOME
RISK CONTINUES FOR BACKBUILDING AND LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CELLS
ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38899177 38419140 37729170 37289229 37099277 
            36549423 36189541 36179625 36589650 37309576 
            37939408 38659293 
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