MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TEXAS...CNTRL OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SERN
KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130612Z - 131000Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NWRN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SERN KANSAS THROUGH 10Z.
HI-RES MODEL SIGNALS ARE MIXED...BUT WANING INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
TO DIMINISH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEYOND 10Z.

DISCUSSION...COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
HAS SHOWN AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM NWRN TEXAS INTO
EXTREME SERN KANSAS WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THE
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
SAGGING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OKLAHOMA AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...BUT WITH
A FASTER EWD PROGRESSION ALONG THE RED RIVER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG PER RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE AND AS REFERENCED IN RECENT SAB SPENES
MESSAGE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE AND SATELLITE DERIVED
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...MAINTAINING
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

00Z HI-RES MODELS SHOW DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW LONG THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST...BUT THE CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CELLS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING THE ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SRN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX WHERE BETTER AXIS TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE PRESENT WITH 30-40 KTS OF SLY FLOW OBSERVED AT
KDYX VWP BETWEEN 850-700 MB. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS...BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED AND UPDATED AS
NEEDED.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LUB...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37439517 37339470 37019452 36459468 35109634 
            33769740 32969886 32920016 33240050 33810051 
            34339992 35169879 35789806 36639694 37379588