MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0205
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
738 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK & NORTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 131136Z - 131436Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER,
CLOSE TO AN AREA WHICH RECEIVED 3-5" OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN AN ELEVATED FASHION OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NEAR A REGION OF SLIGHT CONVERGENCE AT 850 HPA. THE 00Z ARW, 00Z
NMMB, 00Z WRF4NSSL, 00Z NAM CONEST, AND 09Z-10Z HRRR RUNS HAD A
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED IN THIS REGION DUE TO 3-5"
RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DOWN TO
1.5" IN THREE HOURS. INFLOW AT 850 HPA OF 25-35 KTS IS OVERRIDING
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (10 KTS STRONGER THAN THE MEAN 850-400 HPA
WIND), PER VAD WIND PROFILES FROM CENTRAL TX AND RECENT RAP
FORECASTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.4-1.8" PER GPS
INFORMATION, 2-2.5 SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR MID-JUNE. MUCAPES IN
THE AREA REMAIN 1000+ J/KG FOR THE TIME BEING.
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A 10 KT MOVEMENT, WITH
AN EASTERLY HEADING WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE INDICATIONS OF THE
1000-500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERN AND THE PROPAGATION VECTORS. RAP
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT 850 HPA INFLOW AND MUCAPES IN THE REGION
WANE BY 14Z, WHICH IS LIKELY WHEN ANY SHORT TERM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE. THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE MENTIONED ABOVE
GENERALLY FORECASTS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5" NEAR THIS REGION -- THE
00Z NMMB AND 00Z WRF4NSSL APPEAR BEST PLACED PER CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. UNTIL 14Z, THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2", WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER
RECENTLY SATURATED SOILS. USED THE POSSIBLE CATEGORY AS THE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH HAS BEEN SLOW THUS FAR.
ROTH
ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
LAT...LON 35519911 35349766 34739676 33719688 33209795
33129900 33430034 34360089 35240030