MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0208
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX...SOUTHERN OK...RED RIVER VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131935Z - 140000Z
 
SUMMARY...INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGABNIZE AND MAY PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT IS
SHOWING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE CELL ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TX ALONG A FORMER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING DIURNAL HEATING/SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY AS ANY REMAINING CAP OVER THE REGION ERODES. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE AID OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NM WHICH WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO FAVOR RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR. THE LATEST
HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO ALLOW CELLS TO
BACKBUILD AND LOCALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH WILL GREATLY
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...AND GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...SOME FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35729970 35289802 35179611 34619535 34049531 
            33299638 32989788 33189941 33510012 33940083 
            34430124 35080113 35480083