MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0209
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM...WESTERN TX...EXTREME SOUTHWEST OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 132336Z - 140500Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND A FEW CELL-MERGERS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVERALL BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS EASTERN NM...WITH THE ACTIVITY BEGINNING
TO TAKE THE FORM OF AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THE ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND IS ADVANCING OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO THE
ORDER OF ABOUT 3000 J/KG.

THE INCREASED POOL OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER WEST TEXAS
COUPLED WITH DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
ALLOW THE CURRENT ACTIVITY TO NOTABLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z
AND 02Z WHICH IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR. 

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO FOCUS PULSE CELL
ACTIVITY OVER WEST TEXAS...AND SO THE EASTERN NM MCS WILL MERGE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF CELL-MERGERS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND CELL-MERGER
ACTIVITY...THERE WILL BE CONCERNS THIS EVENING FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35950110 35379981 34299934 31939974 30870050 
            30220160 30060309 30160359 30720403 31710415 
            32860402 33950379 35200354 35830265