MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0210
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...EXTREME
NORTHWEST IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140010Z - 140330Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CELLS THROUGH EARLY TO
MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WSW/ENE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL
CURRENTLY. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TENDING TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA LOCALLY AND THIS SET-UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUSTAINED BY THE
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL IA.

THERE ARE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHERN IL WHICH
WILL BE INTERCEPTING EACH OTHER AND ALSO GRADUALLY EXHAUSTING THE
AVAILABLE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. SO BY MID-EVENING THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD PORTEND TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THE CONVECTION.
UNTIL THEN...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CELLS...THERE WILL
BE SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON 

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42438828 42338742 41968705 41138781 40469034 
            40569147 41199149 41739076 42248934