MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0213
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
648 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX/TX PANHANDLE... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 142246Z - 150401Z
 
SUMMARY...BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN NATURE ACROSS
THE MPD AREA. A COMBINATION OF SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND MERGERS WILL
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING BEYOND 00Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS SHOWED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG NOTED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS FOCUSED NORTH
OF THE AMARILLO TX AREA WITH PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE LINE. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS HELPED SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST RECENTLY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAVE BEGUN MOVING OFF THE
TERRAIN TOWARD THE NM/TX BORDER. MANY OF THESE CELLS HAVE
CONTAINED HEFTY HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
BASED ON THE KLBB DUAL-POL RADAR DATA. EXPECT THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE BEYOND 00Z AS THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ BEGINS TO INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE 18Z FFG VALUES INDICATE MULTIPLE AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING WITH 3-HOUR NUMBERS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW VARIOUS LEVELS OF SUPPORT FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
EVIDENCE FOR A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. BEYOND
03Z...THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT LEAVES A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PICTURE.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37360149 37280055 36760007 35630019 34790080 
            33920175 33100289 33700400 34950313 35950264 
            36840227