MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0214
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1134 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TEXAS INTO WRN OKLAHOMA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 150333Z - 150845Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH BACK BUILDING AND REPEAT
CELL MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WRN
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 03Z ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
SHOWED A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SSW TO NNE ACROSS WRN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE TOWN OF CLINTON...WITH DUAL POL ESTIMATED
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. IT APPEARS THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMED ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARKED BY A 10-15 DEWPOINT
GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WERE OTHER CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION GENERALLY
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST. AMPLE INSTABILITY WAS MEASURED AT 00Z VIA
SOUNDINGS AT AMA/OUN/LMN... WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...A VERY SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR OVER WRN KANSAS WITH AN ELONGATED AXIS OF VORTICITY
EXTENDING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AT
250 MB...50-60 KTS...WAS NOTED ON RECENT RUNS OF THE
RAP...CONFIRMED BY AREA RAOBS...WHICH MAY BE AIDING IN LIFT VIA
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS. 

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SHORT TERM RAP FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST...COINCIDING WITH A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. GIVEN IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR INSTABILITY TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN PRESENT VIA THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW HELPING REGENERATION OF CONVECTION...FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 09Z. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
AND THE 12Z NSSL WRF SUPPORT THIS IDEA BEFORE POSSIBLE BOWING OF
CONVECTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE WEAKENING.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37009867 36849819 36509792 35759810 34249920 
            33340074 33330168 33740229 34430256 35110233 
            35860132 36330033 36869928