MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0217
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 151831Z - 160031Z
 
SUMMARY...EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND MERGERS LEADING TO POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
BUILT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WITHIN A
VERY SATURATED PROFILE WITH TOTAL PWATS AOA 2" ACROSS IL/IN/OH AND
S MI. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OF
1.5-2"/HR LIKELY.  AT THIS TIME CELL MOTION IS PROGRESSIVE TOWARD
THE EAST HOWEVER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EXISTS THROUGH THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER ALLOWING FOR TRAINING OR REPEAT ACTIVITY.  THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR IS WELL DEFINED/FOCUSED BOUNDARIES...THIS SHOULD
BE BIT MORE RANDOM IN NATURE.   

STILL CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW ONGOING CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED
WITH TWO MID-LEVEL NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WAVES (SEE MPD #216 FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS) ONE NEARING SBD THE OTHER BETWEEN BTL AND JXN
IN S MI. SINCE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
DESTABILIZED... NEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT TRACKS AND CELL MERGERS
INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF LOWER
GUIDANCE...IE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO (ALLEN/VAN
WERT COUNTIES). 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   42588296 41758346 41558305 40978310 40358369 
            40148609 40168749 40598799 40588908 41148911 
            41878801 42238649 42538565