MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0218
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK/SOUTHWESTERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 151904Z - 152349Z
 
SUMMARY...A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
FOCUS ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. EXPECT EPISODES OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG THESE TRAINING ELEMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED AXIS
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM JUST WEST OF WICHITA
FALLS TX NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KS. MUCH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVERHEAD. WITH A BROAD ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...PERISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION HAS CARRIED 1.75 TO 2 INCH
PWATS UP THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. THIS ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE IS EVIDENT
IN THE 12Z OUN RAOB WITH PWATS JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. GIVEN THE
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SHOW A STRONG HINT OF ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOCUSING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION
ACROSS OK AND INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHWESTERN MO.
OVERALL...THE 12Z WRF-NSSL AND HRW-ARW REFLECT THIS THINKING QUITE
WELL. EXPECT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH
MAY SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38649443 38359370 37819305 37019319 36139441 
            34259706 34059807 34659893 35969726 37149619 
            38339539