MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0219
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX/BIG BEND REGION... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 151945Z - 160045Z
 
SUMMARY...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CONVECTION ERUPTING IN
THE VICINITY OF AN MCV SPINNING JUST TO THE WEST OF SAN ANGELO TX.
EXPECT PERIODS OF TRAINING AND REPEAT CONVECTION TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE MPD AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. 

DISCUSSION...IN THE PAST HOUR...MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE MCV
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED SPARK A CONCENTRATED AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SECTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONFINED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH VERY SLOW CELL MOTIONS NOTED.
ADDITIONALLY...A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WHILE GENERALLY ANCHORING AN
ANALYZED SURFACE BOUNDARY. ACCESS TO MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS SURFACE TO 850-MB EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED 1.25 TO
1.75 INCH PWATS TOWARD THE AFFECTED REGION.

SECTIONS OF THE MPD AREA CONTAIN FAIRLY LOW FFG VALUES WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY WEST OF
SAN ANGELO TX. THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CARRYING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JUST NORTH
OF THE BIG BEND NORTH-NORTHEASTERWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
OVERALL...THE MCV IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A WHOLE LOT IN THE NEXT
6 HOURS WITH A PROJECTED MOTION SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WILL
RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION AS NEWER HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARRIVE.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34249977 34179848 32539813 31019825 29639913 
            29430064 30180205 31110215 31960133 32680064