MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0221
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
759 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX/CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 152358Z - 160328Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THRIVING IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CELL MOTIONS HAVE REMAINED
SLOW AND FOCUSED ALONG THE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ANCHORING THE
REGION. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX 23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A SERIES OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL TX AS WELL AS CENTRAL/EASTERN
OK. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS
FOSTERED THE GROWTH OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...MANY OF
WHICH DROPPED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS
OK...THE FOCUS HAS GENERALLY DROPPED SOUTH AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVED FROM THE OKC METRO AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF
THE STATE. ABOVE 2 INCH PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PERSISTENT SURFACE TO 850-MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE 23Z RAP
FORECAST SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNCAPPED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MAINTAINING HEALTHY
CONVECTION WELL BEYOND 00Z.

THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS VARY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
BEYOND 00Z. A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A GENERAL WEAKENING
WHILE ALLOWING THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z HRW-ARW AND ITS PARALLEL COUNTERPART SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. WILL LIMIT THIS MPD TO
A SHORTER TIME SPAN TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEYOND DARK.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

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            33099751 31839792 31479831 31529888 32089944 
            32450019 33100038 33949980 34419898 34979766 
            35619645 35929589