MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0227
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN TO EASTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 162002Z - 170102Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GROW IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN TX IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT.
EXPECT REPEAT CONVECTION AND CELL MERGERS TO ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING BEYOND 00Z. 

DISCUSSION...PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...CU/CB
DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE REGION SHOW A COMBINATION OF
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS THERMODYNAMIC SETUP
COMBINED WITH DIMINISHED FFG VALUES SUPPORTS A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING. FURTHER...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHICH SUGGESTS
REPEAT CONVECTION/CELL MERGERS ARE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ONLY SHOW HOURLY AMOUNTS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH
RANGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH CG
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INCREASING. EXPECT THE HOURLY RATES TO INCREASE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FFG VALUES BEING LOCALLY EXCEEDED.

WHILE UNCLEAR HOW THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING...THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT. THE 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS AND OTHER HOURLY
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOW A BROAD VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. ALL
MODELS TO A CERTAIN EXTENT DEPICT A REASONABLY ORGANIZED EVENT
WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEYOND 00Z. WILL
RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION LATER IN THE EVENING.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

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            33439635 32179784 31449885 31960005 33179984 
            34939877 35949766 36759632