MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0230
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1254 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 170453Z - 170915Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF
SERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. THREE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO 3-4
INCHES.

DISCUSSION...AT 0430Z...DUAL POL RADAR SHOWED THE HIGHEST
ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF GENERALLY 1-2 IN/HR FROM SERN MISSOURI
INTO SRN ILLINOIS WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
SIMILAR RATES IN W-CNTRL KENTUCKY. THESE AREAS OF RAINFALL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED AHEAD OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER
THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER...WITHIN AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES PER RECENT GPS PWATS AND RECENT BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT. IN ADDITION...LINGERING INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
THREAT AREA WITH RECENT RAP/HRRR AND THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
PLACING MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG FROM SERN MISSOURI INTO
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS REFERENCED IN SAB SPENES SENT
0359Z...SEVERAL SATELLITE FEATURES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ARE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF TRAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR FROM ESRL
HAVE BEEN HANDING THE EVENT REASONABLY WELL AND ARE UNANIMOUS WITH
THE CONTINUING OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH ROUGHLY 09Z. WHILE
SOME OF THE HRRR'S 5-7 INCH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN 6 HOURS ARE
LIKELY OVERDONE...IT APPEARS REASONABLE THAT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP 3 HOURLY RAINFALL OF 3-4 INCHES. THIS WOULD EASILY EXCEED
LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE THREAT AREA...AND ALSO MEET THE HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
DOWNSTREAM IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE INDIANA/KENTUCKY BORDER
WHERE 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS 3-4 INCHES. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38898849 38888659 38828580 38668544 38268517 
            37978518 37548565 37348638 37158796 37108989 
            36909227 37139286 37559298 38029223 38419082 
            38788954