MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0234
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 171849Z - 180049Z
 
SUMMARY...EFFICIENT CORE RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS SLOWS.

DISCUSSION...THE CORE PRECIPITATION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
HAS BEEN WARM TOPPED, BUT EFFICIENT.  HOURLY RAIN RATES REMAIN IN
THE 0.5-1" RANGE, NEAR THE BORDER OF A LONGER DURATION FLOOD AND
FLASH FLOOD EVENT.  SOME SLOWING HAS BEEN SEEN IN ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  MIXED LAYER CAPES REMAIN MEAGER,
WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE CONSTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA REMAINS
30-50 KTS, CLOSE TO DOUBLE THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND IN THE
REGION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.2-2.5" LIE IN THE AREA PER
GPS INFORMATION.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS LOCAL 3-5" RAIN AMOUNTS
WITH BILL'S CORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z
SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOWING AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THROUGH 01Z (USING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AS A
GUIDE).  WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING
IS A CONCERN OVER SATURATED SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35909651 35239488 33759375 33089369 32889433 
            33639496 33959541 33459576 32489602 31679680 
            31669797 32509899 33419939 34859892 35619792