MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0240
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL OK...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX...WEST
AR...SOUTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 180727Z - 181327Z
 
SUMMARY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO CHURN NEAR THE RED
RIVER OF OK/TX WITH THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS LINGERING. 

DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TO 500MB CIRCULATION WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE RED RIVER OF
OK/TX THIS EARLY MORNING. A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES
TO DRAW NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW.
.25DEG GFS AND ECMWF STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR PWS AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE FLUX ARE BASICALLY OFF THE CHARTS... 3 AND 5 TIMES ABOVE
AVG RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE RIDING ON A 40KT 850 MB JET IS
AHEAD OF A VAGUELY RESEMBLED SURFACE TROUGH  TO AN ACTING SHARP
DEFORMATION REGION. BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST HI-RES/GLOBAL
GUIDANCE... EXPECT TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MORE
PERSISTENT COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION RAINS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
CENTER... WHICH COULD STILL FLARE UP BEING NOCTURNAL HRS... TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A SHARP CUT OFF ZONE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS MEANS 2 TO 4 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
VALUES IN THE NEXT 6 HRS FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KS/SOUTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHWESTERN AR WITH PERHAPS A
MIN OVER EASTERN OK WITH SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE OTHER LOCALE
WILL BE FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR... AS CONDITIONS
ARE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ALLOWING MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND
FEEDER BANDS/ZONES TO DEVELOP FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING. THIS ZONE IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TO PREDICT BUT WITHIN DEVELOPING CELLS
TRACKING NORTH OR NORTH AND EAST... EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS SIX HOUR
WINDOW REALLY KEEPS THE REGION IN THE CROSS-HAIRS AS BILL REMAINS
SEPARATED FROM THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. 

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...OUN...SGF...
SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36849317 36519200 34699218 31779291 29599357 
            28789489 28519642 28999694 30299622 31639568 
            32429568 33279617 33509719 33919783 34709810 
            35409796 36069730 36779632 36809618 36839531