MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0243
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...WESTERN ARKANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 182001Z - 190201Z
 
SUMMARY...HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1"-1.5"/HR WITH INNER CORE SHOWERS
WHILE 2.0-2.5"/HR RATES WITHIN INFLOW BAND(S)/DEEPER CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING 

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC WITH EXCELLENT/WELL DEFINED BANDS...INFLOW AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. A SMALL POCKET OF CLEARED SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR INCREASED INSTABILITIES WITH SBCAPES IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE. IT IS WITHIN THIS WELL DEFINED CONFLUENCE/DEFORMATION
ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION THAT ADVECTION OF THE INSTABILITIES AND CONVERGENCE
HAS INCREASED THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITHIN THE BAND...WITH
RATES LIKELY TO INCREASE TO THE 1.5-2"/HR RANGE... THIS WILL LEAD
TO TOTALS IN THE 2-4" RANGE WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE FROM OK/MO BORDER TO JUST EAST OF SGF IN THE NEXT 6HOURS. 

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS...
THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE BAND IS SETTING UP WITHIN A AXIS OF
INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH AVAILABLE 1000-1500 J/KG
BUT WITH INCREASED DEPTH OF MOISTURE WITH TOTAL PWATS IN EXCESS OF
2".  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR 2-2.5"/HR RATES...HOWEVER...CELL
MOTIONS SHOULD BE A BIT FASTER EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION THE LINE.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BROAD
AREA OF 1-2" TOTALS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3" POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CORES.  THE THREAT INCREASES FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST AS
THE BAND CURVES BACK MORE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A MORE FAVORED WIND
PROFILE FOR CELL MOTIONS TO BE TRAINING/REPEATING WITH POCKETS OF
3-4" TOTALS POSSIBLE...PLEASE SEE MPD #242 FOR MORE DETAILS OF
TRAINING CELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37979322 37789189 37359149 36079144 35859145 
            34509168 33319250 33209353 33629446 34189460 
            34419582 35449639 36839552