MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0244
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
509 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 182108Z - 190138Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING
OR REPEAT CONVECTIVE ROUNDS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA HAS LEAD TO LINES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM IL TO WV.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE FOR CONGEALING OF LINES FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TO WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...PLEASE REFER TO SPENES FOR ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE ANALYSIS...THESE PULSES WILL ACT AS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FOR UVVS OVER THE EVENING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUING
MOISTURE PUMPING INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE.  THESE IMPULSES ARE
MOVING INTO INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE... ALLOWING FOR VERY DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR TRAINING CELLS OR REPEAT TRACKS
WITH CONSECUTIVE WAVES.  SLACKED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS N
KENTUCKY FOR SLOWER CELL MOTIONS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER SINGLE CELL TOTALS WITH POTENTIAL UPSTREAM MERGERS.  CELLS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD BE DEEP AND EFFICIENT
HAVING MLCAPES 2000+ J/KG AND TPWS OVER 1.75" NEAR OH/WV AND 2"
UPSTREAM IN IL...LIKELY PRODUCING RATES FROM 1.5-2"/HR.  

CURRENTLY HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS... THOUGH ARW AND NMMB LOOK BEST
ORIENTED WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH BROAD 1-2" TOTALS AND POCKETS OF 3"+ LIKELY IN
LOCATIONS OF THE TRAINING EAST-WEST LINES. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.      

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39658637 39588453 39268303 38998226 38638188 
            37888164 37468216 37608300 37778424 37498661 
            37448824 37708898 39098901 39528767