MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0246
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 190805Z - 191405Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
EXPANDING THIS MORNING.  

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN AR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A VERY SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
CRAWL. THE TROPICAL ENTITY CONTINUES TO CAPITALIZE ON ANOMALOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX AND POOLING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT HAS MAINLY BEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION AND
SLIGHT DEFORMATION REGION. THIS SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS BEGINNING
TO EXPAND... AS TWO OTHER FEATURES CREEP INTO THE PICTURE. A CORE
850MB LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-50 KTS IS INDUCING MULTIPLE NARROW LINES
OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE LINE
SEGMENTS COULD POSE HEFTY RAIN RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN AR INTO NORTHWESTERN MS...WESTERN
TN AND SOUTHEASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL. MEANWHILE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION... A SURFACE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY. 850MB STREAMLINES DELINEATE
STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION AND A ZONE OF PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL... MAINLY FROM AROUND THE STL METRO
AREA TO IND/WEST CENTRAL OH. THESE THREE AREAS ARE THE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH BILL.  
    

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JAN...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...
PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40288633 40168508 39768442 39178441 38968586 
            38108664 37818784 37408826 36398850 35408914 
            34259033 33499111 32879203 32959304 32949436 
            33249485 33489484 33739338 34129271 34719212 
            35259171 35799165 35739202 35109245 35019316 
            35169404 35519445 36129446 37129395 37919326 
            38729235 39379110 39459011 39538950 39888816