MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0248
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
444 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...EXTREME AR...SRN IL...SRN IN...SWRN
OH...WRN AND NRN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 192042Z - 200200Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WAS CONTINUING TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
BILL HAD STARTED TO RECOVER FROM THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING.  THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE
WHERE THE 850 MB FLOW RIDES UP AND OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY.  THIS ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE
AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AT MID
LEVELS. 

HI-RES MODELS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON AN INCREASE IN BANDED CONVECTION EAST OF BILL FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL AS ALONG AND NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT. 

SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 3000 J PER
KG FROM THE PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. 
SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE STILL ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES WHICH WAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARDIZED ANAMOLIES ABOVE NORMAL.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES OF 2"/HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. 

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREA WITH HIGHEST
RISK PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE STARTIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE FFG VALUES
WERE AS LOW AS 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES PER HOUR.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...OHX...
PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39528680 39298414 38188360 37498597 36528693 
            35948738 35198812 35098892 35928983 36809012 
            37209145 37939172 38839027 39448866