MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0254...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1103 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IA...SOUTHEASTERN NE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 210252Z - 210752Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS.  

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL ZONE STALLING INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING IS ACTING AS ONE OF SEVERAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH BACKBUILDING. DEEP POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT OF OVER 2 INCHES IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
NEAR THIS THERMAL ZONE... AS AN ARRAY OF SMALL SCALE UPPER
VORTICITY PRESS DOWNSTREAM. 850MB JET CORE IS ALLOWING THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. HOWEVER JUST UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MO
AND SOUTHERN IA... RAP REFRESH 850MB STREAMLINES SHOWS CONTINUED
INFLOW INTO THE LINE BUT DROPPING OFF TO ALMOST CALM ON THE BACK
EDGE. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN
CORFIDI VECTORS. THE INTENSE HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR
WILL LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND COULD POSE
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE TWO STATES AND POSSIBLY SPREAD BACK INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NE.  

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   41309390 40599087 39568980 39409095 39859379 
            40249649 41209621