MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0256
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1005 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN
MO...FAR WESTERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 211404Z - 212000Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
SOON. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO 2 INCHES/HR AND LOCALLY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEPER LAYER WNW
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE HELPING TO FOCUS
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KS AND
MO. 

GOES-SOUNDER LI/S ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING FOSTERS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ACTING AS A SIGNIFICANT CAP THROUGH THE MORNING THUS
FAR...BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME SUBTLE COOLING OF THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR...AND IS FAVORED BY THE 00Z ARW AND 00Z NMMB.
GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ARE LOCALLY OVER 1.75 INCHES...AND THIS SHOULD
FAVOR RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING OF CELLS.

GIVEN LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING GOING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

ORRISON 

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40569528 40379364 39739135 39199018 38569006 
            38289059 38329146 38599246 38959418 39089570 
            39319645 39849680 40379637