MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0259
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN
MO...FAR WESTERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 212000Z - 220000Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE THE CELLS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TRAIN AND BRING REPEATED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE SAME PLACES. 

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEPER LAYER WNW
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION AND TO FOCUS STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
AGREE THAT STORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA DURING THE PERIOD OF
MAX HEATING...FOLLOWING BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY
EVENING.

GOES-SOUNDER PWATS REMAINED LOCALLY OVER 1.75 INCHES...AND THIS
SHOULD FAVOR RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES/HR WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
OF CELLS.

GIVEN LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING GOING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

BANN
 

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40189433 39839191 39359053 38398904 38128956 
            38729301 39139524 39559582 40049559