MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0262...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1020 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
 
CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN AREAS AFFECTED

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MO...NORTHERN IL...EXTREME NORTHWEST IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230214Z - 230730Z
 
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHEAST
MO INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW COLD CLOUD TOPS
OVER IA/MO WHICH WERE EXPANDING INTO IL.  THE AIRMASS REMAINED
UNSTABLE WITH SB CAPES AROUND 4500 J PER KG AND PW VALUES FROM
1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS WERE WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA SHOWED 850 MB WAS 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE CELLS...SUGGESTING
THAT CELLS WILL BE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAFL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN AREAS WHERE FFG WAS AT OR 2 INCHES.  

SHORT TERM MODELS WERE STILL NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTION
PARTICULARLY WELL...WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR STILL SHOWING A
HALF INCH QPF OR LESS THROUGH 08Z. CONSEQUENTLY WE WERE FOCUSING
THE MPD ALONG AREAS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT...MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHEST CAPE FROM 00Z SOUNDING AND SHORT TERM
RAINFALL RATES FROM AREA RADARS. THINK THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL RATES
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO A REGION
WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41878759 41638604 40668641 40018810 38509017 
            38429178 39869309 40309138 41078981 41718877