MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0263
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1129 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEAST IN...NORTHERN OH
AND NORTHWEST PA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230328Z - 230828Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MI SOUTH AND EAST; NORTH AND EAST OF MPD #0262.  

DISCUSSION...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING IS BEGINNING TO TRIGGER A SOLID
ACTIVE LINE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI. AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE... ECMWF/GFS AND HI-RES SUITE DEVELOP A 50-60KT
850MB WSWRLY LOW LEVEL JET  WITH A NARROW BUT ANOMALOUS 2 INCH
PLUS PLUME OF PWS BY 06Z/23. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS TO TRANSITION DOWNSTREAM AND POSSIBLY EXPAND INTO
A LARGER CLUSTER. AT THE MOMENT... THIS WOULD POSSIBLY INCLUDE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF MI... INTO NORTHEASTERN IN/NORTHERN OH AND
DOWNWIND INTO NORTHWESTERN PA/SOUTHWESTERN NY. THE MOST IMMEDIATE
CONCERN IS THE TRAINING CELLS COMING OFF LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI...
THIS IS WHERE PARALLEL FLOW APPEARS EVIDENT. RAIN RATES OF 1-2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE AREA AND LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.     

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NERFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   43678164 43047941 42607856 41857929 41167986 
            41018094 41258232 41188331 40428408 40928554 
            41988651 42008669 42718696 42988615 43108453