MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0264
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 231740Z - 232040Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED AXIS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEB AND INTO
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN TENDING TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IN A WNW/ESE FASHION IS FOCUSING ALONG AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND IS BEING AIDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SHEARING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. 

THE LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB AT ALL IN
HANDLING THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AS THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB ARE
BOTH UNDERDONE. MEANWHILE...CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TOO QUICK TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTION. THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS PER
SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN LAST HOUR AND THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOWS AN UPTICK IN STRIKE
INTENSITY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MAY TEND TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF IN AN ELEVATED FASHION AND ESPECIALLY WITH AT LEAST A
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE TRAINING NATURE OF
THE CELL ACTIVITY. SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR
CAN BE EXPECTED.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40789837 40719747 40449648 40229481 39939356 
            39279343 39119455 39209553 39489673 39979788 
            40369849