MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0265
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS/NORTHERN MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 232030Z - 240030Z
 
SUMMARY...AN ELEVATED MCS CROSSING SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST
KS/NORTHERN MO COULD PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN
HOUR...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE IR LOOP SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS REMAIN NEAR -70 C
AS THE MCS TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION IS
ELEVATED...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING BASES AT OR ABOVE 700 MB
ACROSS NORTHWEST MO. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT  HAIL AS THE CONVECTIVE
MODE...AND HAIL HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.

THE CONVECTION IS FOLLOWING AN AXIS OF 1.70 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NE ACROSS NORTHERN MO. WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE FAVORS HAIL...OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES HAS OCCURRED OVER NORTHEAST KS. THE KUEX RADAR SHOWED HIGH
VALUES OF KDP OVER SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMID THE HAIL REPORTS.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS NOT DEPICTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE MCS WELL AT ALL...AND OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
MCS REMAINS INTACT WITH COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES... THE THREAT
FOR 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR CONTINUES. BECAUSE ONE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO...FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40679576 40549513 39719232 38689163 38359201 
            38809557 39949780 40629744 40619744