MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0266
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...IA...NE AND NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 240545Z - 241145Z
 
SUMMARY...TRAINING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE INTO IA; PERHAPS EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN
MO/NORTHEASTERN KS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. 

DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING OUT OF CO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A BATCH OF ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NE INTO WEST CENTRAL IA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER
KS INTO MO AND BETTER SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... AN ACTIVE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SIZE/SPEED
AND VEER OVER TIME. 04Z HRRR INDICATES INITIAL 850MB FLOW OF 50KTS
OUT OF THE SSW BUT BY 09Z AND 12Z THIS 50 TO 60 KT JET EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE AND VEERING TO MORE TO THE WSW. THUS ACTIVITY ALREADY
FLOURISHING COULD RE-DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY TRAIN OVER TIME.
ESPECIALLY AS THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY 12Z. THUS ANTICIPATE CURRENT ACTIVITY TO
EXPAND OVER TIME FROM NE INTO IA... POSSIBLY TRAIN AND WITH STORM
MOTION MORE AND MORE SE OVER TIME POSSIBLY REACH NORTHEASTERN KS
AND NORTHERN MO WHERE FFG IS LOWER. THE SIGNAL IS IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAIN BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT AREA
OVER TIME AND THUS WPC WENT WITH A RATHER LARGE ZONE FOR THE NEXT
6 HRS.  

MUSHER

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...ILX...LSX...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   42539406 42159160 41079044 40219090 39679197 
            39329429 39639599 40209812 40739903 41509871 
            42379619